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Info

Welcome to the Predictor website. The pages within provide up to date forecasts and ranking systems for English club football. The forecasts and rankings are generated by a statistical model of football matches, the input to which is more than five years worth of football scores incorporating over 10,000 games.

 

The Model

 

Our statistical model uses time-weighted shots and goals data to generate an attack and defence ranking for each club. The different divisions are calibrated by using data from cup matches. The number of goals scored by a club in a match depends on the attack rating of the club and the defence rating of the opposition. There is also a home advantage rating, which allows for the fact that clubs score more goals when playing at home.

Here's an example:

Home team Fulham: Attack = 0.8, Defence = 1.1.

Away team Liverpool: Attack = 1.5, Defence = 0.7.

Home advantage = 1.4.

 

Average number of Fulham goals = 0.8*0.7*1.4 = 0.784

Average number of Liverpool goals = 1.7*1.1 = 1.870

 

Converting this goal average into a distribution of goal outcomes is achieved a probability distribution. The probability distribution gives the chance of Liverpool scoring a certain number of goals given their Average number of goals. e.g.

Probability Liverpool score 0 goals = 15%

Probability Liverpool score 1 goals = 29%

Probability Liverpool score 2 goals = 27% etc.

 

Probability Fulham score 0 goals = 46%

Probability Fulham score 1 goals = 36%

Probability Fulham score 2 goals = 14% etc.

 

Now we can calculate the probability of a 0-0 draw. It's 15%*46% = 6.9%. Once we can calculate the chance of a particular score, it is easy to calculate the chance of a home win / draw / away win.

 

What's Not Included

 

At the moment, the model does not incorporate team news, and so our predictions do not take into account the fact that, for example, John Terry is injured or Wayne Rooney is suspended. The "Game Settings" option in the Game Simulator allows users to adjust the team strength to account for injuries suspensions etc.

We use UEFA Cup and Champions League results to calibrate the strength of teams across different leagues. This lets you simulate a match between two European clubs from many major leagues.

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